Engineer Rashid’s victory reflects people’s desire to own their narrative
A FORCE Report
It is sweltering in Kashmir. As the temperature rises to 36 degrees, the political climate too remains heated. The regional political parties have remained resistant despite the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) attempts over the past five years to undermine mainstream politics in the Kashmir Valley. Even with the 2022 delimitation exercise, which mainstream parties described as gerrymandering in favour of the BJP, the BJP has not made any inroads and chose not to contest three seats in the Kashmir Valley in the recently concluded general elections.
However, mainstream regional parties, especially the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC), seem jittery after the jailed mainstream leader Engineer Rashid defeated NC vice-president Omar Abdullah. Rashid won big. He got more votes than Abdullah and Sajjad Lone combined. For Rashid's supporters, it demonstrates his popularity with the ordinary people, and his connection with the masses despite being in jail for five years.
In Rashid’s absence, it was his 23-year-old son, Abrar Rashid, who launched a vigorous emotional campaign across the 18 Assembly segments of north Kashmir, using social media extensively. His slogan was simple: ‘Jail ka badla vote say’ (revenge for jail with vote).
The slogan originated in Pakistan with Pakistani leader Imran Khan’s supporters first: ‘Zulm ka Badla Vote Say’ (revenge for oppression with vote). It was later adopted in Kashmir by the PDP leader Waheed Para, who replaced zulm with jail when he was campaigning from the Srinagar constituency against the NC candidate Aga Ruhullah Mehdi.
But when Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) decided to contest polls, Abrar Rashid raised the slogan more passionately. With hundreds of people in jail and Rashid being a well-known face among them, the slogan resonated with the people, who came out in large numbers to vote for him. Women voters, in particular, were moved and voted in droves. This emotional tsunami shocked the NC, PDP and the Peoples Conference, which was supported by the Apni Party, in north Kashmir.
Omar Abdullah was so unaware of the political upheaval coming from north Kashmir that on the day of the counting, he was at Royal Springs Golf Course in a running suit, dismissing early trends favouring Rashid. However, as the gap between him and Rashid widened, he acknowledged defeat.
The defeat had a deep impact on the National Conference. The party couldn’t celebrate the wins of its two MPs, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi from Srinagar and Mian Altaf from the crucial south Kashmir seat, which now includes regions of Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch.
The victory of independent candidate Haji Hanifa in Ladakh is seen as a strategic move by the NC. After the INDIA alliance chose its candidate, the NC leadership in the region resigned, allowing Hanifa to run as an independent. This manoeuvre was intended to maintain NC influence in Ladakh, despite the party’s official absence from the race. However, it is Abdullah’s defeat that the party has yet to come to terms with.
Strangely, the PDP is now aligning with the NC on Rashid, despite the NC sabotaging Mehbooba Mufti’s move to contest as the INDIA alliance candidate from south Kashmir's seat. A PDP leader said Abdullah refused to give the seat to Mufti, fearing it would lead to the resurrection of the ‘dead PDP’ which splintered after the abrogation of Article 370. “Now all of us are facing the spectre of Engineer Rashid,” he added.
Mufti, who has been a staunch opponent of New Delhi in Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370, described Rashid’s victory as a win for those who believe in a plebiscite. On July 27 this year during the 25th foundation day of her party, Mufti taunted New Delhi. She said despite the arrests of thousands and the use of repressive tactics, the people of north Kashmir, considered the most patriotic, voted for the plebiscite. “This is what you have achieved after killing, beating, and jailing thousands of people since 2019.”
At the same rally, the party’s senior leader Mehboob Beg claimed that Peoples Conference leader Lone told Union home minister Amit Shah that Engineer Rashid should be allowed to contest so that he would cut into Abdullah’s votes using his emotional appeal. Beg went on to say they didn’t expect Rashid to win so overwhelmingly.
Abdullah was the first to endorse views that “Rashid’s victory will undoubtedly empower secessionists and give Kashmir’s defeated Islamist movement a renewed sense of hope.” The contradictions in these leaders’ statements indicate they have yet to fully grasp the impact of Rashid’s win.
Electorally speaking, the BJP has little stake in Kashmir. In Ladakh, the party is effectively finished. However, mainstream parties suspect that New Delhi is orchestrating a significant shift in Kashmir’s political landscape after the recent general elections. Publicly, NC and PDP accuse Engineer Rashid of being a separatist. Privately, however, they also allege that he is New Delhi’s pawn, intended to displace the traditional mainstream parties. The central government’s active engagement with Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has added to these fears. Mainstream parties worry that New Delhi is trying to replace them with Rashid and Jamaat, following the government’s unsuccessful attempts to substitute the Abdullahs and Muftis with the Apni Party.
The Apni Party, also called the King’s Party, performed poorly in the recent local elections and has lost favour with New Delhi. “It is good that Jamaat is showing a willingness to join the electoral politics,” Mufti said, adding that in the past she was accused by the BJP of supporting Jamaat when she was in power, and now the BJP is begging Jamaat to contest polls.
For its part, the BJP has nothing to celebrate in J&K. But the party is skilled enough to turn defeat in Kashmir into a win in the mainland. After the elections in which the ruling BJP didn’t increase its vote share in two seats of Jammu, lost Ladakh coming in at the third position in the cold desert and didn’t contest polls in Kashmir, the party ended up celebrating the elections in J&K.
The Prime Minister on June 21, addressing an event at the Sher-e-Kashmir International Conference Centre (SKICC) said, “You made democracy win. You broke all records (for voter turnout) of the last 35-40 years. It shows that the youth here have deep trust in democracy. I wanted to visit the Kashmir Valley to thank the people. You have kept the flag of democracy aloft and I have come to thank you,” he said. The Prime Minister also said the day is not far when the people of Jammu and Kashmir will vote to elect their government and the day will also come soon when Jammu and Kashmir, in the form of a state, will make a better future for itself.
As the National Conference and other parties wait for the assembly elections the Awami Ittihad Party has become a key focus. The government allowed Rashid to take oath as a member of parliament even though he continues to be in jail. His party has decided to contest assembly elections, whenever they are held.
The AIP was founded by Abdul Rashid Sheikh, known as Engineer Rashid. He holds a diploma in engineering and a science degree and previously worked as an assistant executive engineer with the Jammu and Kashmir Project Construction Corporation (JKPCC).
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