The Volatility of the Indo-Pacific

Cdr S. Shrikumar (retd)

The term ‘Indo-Pacific’, was originally meant to define a bio-geographic region of the seas, comprising the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, and the seas connecting the two oceans in the general area of China and Indonesia. The temperate and polar regions of the Indian and Pacific oceans and the eastern Pacific along the coast of the Americas do not form a part of the Indo-Pacific.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing nuclear submarine INS Arihant’s crew after the ship’s first deterrence patrol

Over the last decade and a half, the frequency of the usage of the term, ‘Indo-Pacific’, has grown multi-fold in the geopolitical context. However, the first usage of the term ‘Indo-Pacific’, in geopolitical conversations, is from a much earlier time. It was, reportedly, first used by the German geopolitician Karl Haushofer, in the 1920s, in his academic work ‘Indopazifischen Raum’.

Interestingly, the first author to use the term in the context of the current ‘security’ linkage between the two oceans, is thought to be Gurpreet Khurana--in an article authored by him in the Strategic Analysis Journal (2007). In the article, Khurana used the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ to define the maritime space stretching from the littorals of East Africa across the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean to the littorals of East Asia.

The international order in the Indo-Pacific--dubbed as the world’s new geopolitical centre of gravity--has, of late, attracted a lot of attention. The increased interest in the region is a result of the multi-layered maritime competition fuelled by the rise in the military and economic might of China, the presence in the region of several nuclear-capable nations (India, China, Pakistan and North Korea), US allies (Japan, South Korea and Australia) and the ASEAN--all with competing geopolitical and economic interests. Also in the mix, is a deep concern, among the region’s nations, over the security and control of arguably the world’s most important maritime trading channel--the Malacca Strait.

China’s Nuclear Doctrine

Nuclear weapons play an important but restricted role in China’s defence plans. China adopted the nuclear ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy in 1964. Since then, China has been steadfast in its adherence to the NFU commitment in the planning of its nuclear force structure and operational doctrine. China often presents its small, but survivable nuclear force, as evidence of the limited role nuclear weapons are meant to play in China’s nuclear operations doctrine. Within the nuclear policy and decision-making circles in China, possession of a reliable retaliatory capability has come to be accepted as an adequate safeguard against nuclear coercion.

For its second-strike