Girish Linganna

China’s largest-ever military drills near Taiwan have not only heightened regional tensions but also given observers a glimpse of how Chinese forces may operate around the self-ruled island in the event of a confrontation.

As per a group of US defence specialists and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in the event of a Chinese invasion, Taiwan will be able to repel it in most circumstances but at a high cost to US forces in the Pacific.

Bloomberg quoting a senior official at a think-tank participating in an ongoing simulation exercise, writes that the CSIS played out a scenario in which China invaded Taiwan. Experts believe Taiwan will be able to withstand the invasion, but China will sink most of the surface fleets of the US and Japan.

CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian told the publication that the results demonstrate that Taiwan can repel an invasion in most, but not all, situations. According to Cancian, the experts completed 22 rounds of simulation and in 18 of them, Chinese missiles were able to sink a substantial portion of US and Japanese surface ships and destroy hundreds of planes.

According to the expert, the US ‘lost’ 900 fighters and attack aircraft in a four-week combat during the previous simulation game, which is about half the navy and air force assets. In the early stages of a hypothetical invasion, China could also ‘destroy’ the navy and half of Taiwan’s air force.

The simulation covers the option of Tokyo granting Washington wider access to US facilities on its territory while excluding the use of nuclear weapons. The experts pointed out that the simulations performed thus far do not even represent the most complicated possibility. Cancian stated they had not considered the gloomiest possibilities in which China may take the entire island. The simulation games will run through September, with the outcomes made public in December.

Regional Dynamics

The brea