The past year has been one of considerable churn in the neighbourhood. Tensions on the India-China border have continued with China hardening its stance and showing no indications of pulling back.

With the Taliban back in Kabul, the chaos of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has upended 20 years of assiduous diplomatic gains. And of course, in spite of occasionally positive voices emerging from Pakistan, relations are frosty to say the least. All this, with other nations in the region—Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives—facing their own internal turmoil and a military coup in Myanmar.

India has navigated the churn quite adroitly so far, but some of the happenings may impinge on our security in the coming year or so. Let us have a quick look at some regional events and their likely impact upon us.

The Af-Pak Region

Perhaps the greatest geopolitical churn has been caused by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last August. The fall of the Ghani government and the return of a potentially hostile regime back in Kabul, threaten our interests and buttress Pakistan’s claims for so called ‘strategic depth.’

Although the Taliban have gone back to doing what they do best—curbing travel and education for women, lopping heads of mannequins, forcing men to don beards and heralding a return to the Islamic Emirate—their recent pronouncements show a sort of outreach towards India. India has kept its options open by establishing communication channels with the Taliban and providing much needed aid and vaccines to the beleaguered nation.

With the cessation of foreign aid (which accounts for a whopping 45 per cent of its GDP) and the blocking of USD 9 billion of Afghan funds in US banks, most government employees have not been paid and over 23 per cent of the population faces starvation in the winter. The Taliban are discovering that running a nation is a far cry from taking it over, and Afghanistan could be headed for greater turmoil—perhaps even a civil war. This summer will see the instability of Afghanistan come to the fore which could spill across the region and onto our soil.

Pakistan has heralded its success in Afghanistan as a vindication of its policies, but it may be a double-edged victory. They too are going through their own churn. The GDP has dropped to USD 280 billion (below the USD350 of Bangladesh and India’s USD 3.1 trillion) and their debt to GDP ratio is an astounding 87 per cent. The IMF has released an aid tranche of USD 1 billion which could provide immediate relief, but the conditionalities will impose hardships on people, already reeling under price rise, scarcities, and inflation. All this is compounded by political instability. Imran Khan’s government is under siege by the hardline Islamist party, the Tehreek-e-Labbaik, which forced it to capitulate for the release of its cadres. Army–government relations too have come to a head over the appointment of the new ISI Chief and many political pundits predict that this government is unlikely to last out its full term.