Air Marshal Ramesh Rai (retd)

Force structuring an air force is always a challenge for military planners as they must endeavour to build the right mix of capabilities to meet the myriad challenges of the future battle space. The challenge gets further complicated by the prospect of the types and generations of platforms and technologies that can be inducted vis-à-vis the costs involved. These key elements of the structure are identified based on the strategic construct and operational concept for fighting a future war. Since force structuring gobbles up a major portion of the nation’s financial pie, it is hotly contested and debated within the government, armed forces and the media. The debate is usually on how many platforms or squadrons would be adequate to meet the security challenge of the future.

Way back in the mid-Sixties, the Tata Committee had recommended a 64 squadron air force for the nation. The threat then was rather benign and technology in its beginnings. The government of India sanctioned a force of 39.5 fighter squadrons which remained unchanged till the Indian Air Force (IAF) presented Vision 2020 in September 2000 recommending 55 squadrons. The government then cleared a force structure of 42-45 squadrons to be raised by the end of 13th Plan period i.e. 2027. The IAF has a strength of 30 squadrons as of today and hopes for 42 squadrons by 2027 and 45 by 2032 when it will complete a century. However, given the fact that the government has always sanctioned less than what was desired, it is ambiguous whether 45 squadrons will meet the requirements of a two-front war. China has since emerged as a formidable adversary, given its concept of fighting an informationalised war with fifth generation manned and unmanned platforms, networked advanced technologies combined with cyber war. The IAF’s structure will be compelled to follow fifth generation contours to contest the war on equal footing if not better.

Calculating force-level requirements isn’t easy. It requires to meticulously work out the number of units in terms of fighter squadrons, after a full target selection along both fronts, and an in-depth evaluation/ analysis based on the operational concept, for an over-the-target (OTR) weapon requirement calculations. The OTR calculations entail working out the number of weapons that must fall on the target to achieve its desired degradation and then apply probability factors to determine the number of weapons that must be carried by the number