IAditya Kakkar

The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years with connectivity and sustainability being key drivers.

India is set to become the third largest aviation market one year earlier than originally expected, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in a report on October 24. IATA, which represents about 85 per cent of the global airline traffic, projects India to overtake the UK to become the third largest air passenger market by 2025. China will be the top market, followed by the US. In a similar report last year, IATA had projected India to overtake the UK by 2026.

By 2036, India will have about 478 million airline passenger traffic, which will be more than that of Japan (just under 225 million) and Germany (just over 200 million) combined. India’s current passenger traffic is about 141 million. The most critical number will be the doubling of overall passenger traffic globally from 4 billion to nearly 7.8 billion passengers in 2036 on a 3.6 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said IATA’s director general and chief executive officer, Alexandre de Juniac. Indian airlines have over 800 planes on order and in the next five years alone are set to add 350-400 aircraft. All Indian airlines put together have a fleet of around 500 aircraft currently.

The role of India's civil aviation ministry cannot be underscored which has actively incorporated industry inputs in formulating new guidelines and policies. The ministry has acceded to a request from some airlines that will allow them to potentially ply bigger aircraft for UDAN flights and also be more flexible in how they integrate