Bilal Gani

The diplomatic and military relations between India and Pakistan grew increasingly strained following a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Twenty-six innocent tourists were killed in a cold-blooded terrorist attack—an incident that has left the nation stunned and grieving. As Indian intelligence reports trace the origin of the attack to Pakistan-based terror groups, the Indian government is now actively reconsidering its long-standing commitments to its western neighbour. Among the most serious reconsiderations is the potential revocation of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)—a landmark agreement that has endured decades of hostilities but may no longer survive the weight of bloodshed.

On Tenterhooks

In the initial years after Partition, the water sharing between India and Pakistan was governed by the Inter-Dominion Accord of 4 May 1948. According to this accord, India was required to release sufficient water through existing canals to Pakistan’s region of the basin in return for an annual payment from the government of Pakistan. After years of stalled negotiations, the World Bank intervened in 1954 to resolve this contentious issue, which ultimately led to the signing of the Indus Water Treaty on 19 September 1960. The treaty granted India exclusive rights over the Eastern rivers like Ravi, Beas and Satluj, while allocating Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to Pakistan. India gets roughly 30 per cent and Pakistan gets 70 per cent of the water carried by the Indus River System (IRS). Article III of the Treaty restricted India’s use of these rivers for domestic, non-consumptive, and agricultural purposes. Over the years, India has built large water infrastructure such as dams, barrages, and hydroelectric projects on these rivers, in violation of the Treaty’s provisions—a move that has been strongly resented by Pakistan. The massive infrastructure projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle on the western rivers like the Jhelum and Chenab have been built by India in J&K. Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on the Indus system for over 80 per cent of its irrigated agriculture, viewed this as an existential threat and took the matter to the World Bank. As a result, a treaty that could have served as a channel for healthy diplomatic engagement and a vibrant bilateral relationship has instead become a source of strained relations and a potential flashpoint for the conflict.