View from Russia | Changed Equations

Andrew Korybko

The Galwan incident that occurred between China and India near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in early June carries with it extremely acute consequences on the bilateral, regional, and global levels. The world’s two most populous nations are destined to intensify their competition with one another at all levels irrespective of whatever they might say to the contrary. Both countries must recognise this inevitability, prepare themselves accordingly, but importantly retain reliable channels of communication in order to manage their rivalry as responsibly as possible given the mutually disastrous outcome of a conventional war by miscalculation that might easily spiral out of control.

Bilateral Consequences

Some observers were caught off-guard by the Galwan incident since they had hitherto taken the platitudes that each country’s representatives occasionally expressed about peace, cooperation, and the like at face value, overlooking the actual rivalry between the two that was always simmering. The details of the Galwan incident are still disputed, namely the course of events that sparked this clash and the number of casualties on the Chinese side, but some significant insight can still be inferred based on the information that’s already available in the public domain. Simply put, the classic security dilemma between these two countries became too tense and required a catharsis to relieve some of the pent-up pressure.

India believes that China is attempting to encircle it through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especia