Time to Take Off

Rohan Ramesh | Bengaluru

Last year, International Aviation Transport Association (IATA) predicted that China will be the biggest aviation market in the world by 2024, with the US in the second place and India third. The 20-year forecast by IATA sees an east-ward shift of the market, with China and India driving the world aviation market. With the world population projections to be close to 9 billion by 2037, IATA’s passenger projection for that year is placed at 8.2 billion. In other words, virtually every person in the world would undertake an air journey by that year.

CSIR-National Aerospace Laboratories’ (NAL) Multirole Light Transport Aircraft Saras

That astounding projection makes air travel virtually as common as road or rail travel in the long-distance travel segment. Airbus forecasts a passenger and cargo aircraft demand of 37,400 aircraft by 2037, while Boeing pitches the demand at around 42,000 aircraft.

With the demand for civilian aircraft increasing, the world aviation industry is likely to see a massive surge in production. And with costs of civilian aircraft production seeing a cosmic jump, nations like India will have to cough up billions of dollars to acquire them.

India, incidentally, is the only emerging power which does not produce its own civilian aircraft. In fact, it is the only country in the BRICS grouping that is not a civilian aircraft producer.

Poised to become the third biggest market in 20 years, India will be the biggest civilian aircraft importer in the world, spending possibly a hundred billion dollars, which could produce millions of jobs within the country.

For decades, India has been a net importer of aircraft, both military and civil. And that is shocking, considering