The Return of the Taliban

Ajay Singh

Everyone saw it coming, but nobody expected it to unravel so fast. From the time President Joe Biden announced that he would withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September 2021, (less around a battalion to guard the Embassy), security analysts had predicted that the Taliban would take over the country in a year or so—maybe two years at the most.

But less than three months after the US commenced its withdrawal, the Taliban have already roared through Afghanistan, taking over 204 of its 407 districts; it held only 73 at the beginning of May. It has seized the major towns of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat and Kandahar and gained control of the major border crossings and highways. In most cases, the Afghan security forces have surrendered without a fight. Without the US air support and intelligence, they stand little chance against the well-armed and highly motivated Taliban fighters. With just around 15 per cent of the country still under government control, the question of a Taliban takeover is not about ‘when’ but ‘how soon?’

The symbolic end of the US withdrawal came with the handing over of the crucial Bagram Base, north of Kabul. At 3 am in the morning of July 2, US troops filed into the cavernous doors of the mammoth transport aircraft and the last aircraft took off from one of its twin runways. The withdrawal was low key, even without the customary photo op. It did not have the frantic desperation of Vietnam, when US helicopters lifted off from the US embassy in Saigon, with the panicked staff hanging on to them. But it was still a defeat and contained the hidden chaos.

Over 16,000 pieces of equipment were destroyed before departure to prevent them from falling in hostile hands. Looters entered the base, grabbing laptops and whatever else they could find—because of the lack of coordination with the Afghan security forces who were to take over the base. Over 17,000 Afghan personnel who had worked with the US, hurriedly sought asylum in neighbouring countries fearing reprisal from the Taliban. And predictably, a rocket landed near the base almost as soon as it had been vacated. The base which once saw over 100,000 troops passing through it and witnessed over 200 take-offs