The Long Shot

Prasun K. Sengupta

China is building three separate intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo-fields capable of housing about 350 DF-41 ICBMs, each capable of delivering ten independently targeted Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) warheads.

                                                      DF-31AG Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

The first silo-field was discovered at Yumen in Gansu province, with the second being located 380km northwest of the Yumen field near the prefecture-level city of Hami in eastern Xinjiang, while the third is at Hanggin Banner in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. Each of the three sites is expected to host about 120 silos. Construction at the first two sites began in early March this year and work continues at a rapid pace. Since then, dome shelters have been erected over at least 14 silos and soil cleared in preparation for construction of another 19 silos at Yumen.

The grid-like outline of the entire complexes at the first two sites indicates that each of them may eventually include approximately 120 silos. The silos at Hami are positioned in an almost perfect grid pattern, roughly 3km apart, with adjacent support facilities. Construction and organisation of the Hami silos are very similar to the 120 silos at the Yumen site, and are also very similar to the approximately 12 silos constructed at the Jilantai training area in Inner Mongolia. These shelters are typically removed only after more sensitive construction underneath is completed.

Just like the Yumen site, the Hami site spans an area of approximately 800sqkm. China has for decades operated about 20 silos for liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs. With 120 silos now under construction at Yumen, plus another 120 silos at Hami, a dozen silos at Jilantai, and possibly more silos being added in existing DF-5 deployment areas, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) can be expected to have approximately 350 silos under construction—more