The Great Indian Dilemma

Gp Capt. A.K. Sachdev (retd)

India did a deft tightrope walk over the Ukraine imbroglio with three successive abstentions at the UN—in the Security Council, the General Assembly, and the Human Rights Council, although at the International Court of Justice, the Indian judge voted in favour of asking Russia to suspend military operations with immediate effect.

The government’s constant refrain since the beginning of the war has been a call for peace without criticizing, condemning or deploring Russia. This stance can be viewed as apt recompense for past Soviet vetoes (on six occasions) in defence of Indian stand on Kashmir at the UN, and Soviet moral and implied military support during the 1971 war with Pakistan.

However, there is a pragmatic rationale too behind the need to keep Russia in good humour—, our current and future reliance on weapons and defence equipment of Russian origin. This article looks at the potential effects of the Russian military action in Ukraine on Indian defence supplies, resupplies, replacements, spares and sustenance.

Sanctions Apply Pressure

According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is one of the world’s largest arms importers, accounting for 11 per cent of the world’s total arms purchases. SIPRI places Russia’s exports to India at 46 per cent of India’s total arms imports although some other sources quote higher figures than that. This figure needs to be seen in the light of the estimated percentage of Russian equipment used by India’s armed forces to be 60 per cent to 85 per cent. Dr Sameer Lalwani et al, in an article in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, place the breadth of Russian-origin platforms in the Indian military at 85 per cent, rather than the often-cited figure of 60 per cent.

Russian entities were expected to show off their wares at the DefExpo in Gandhinagar last month, but the event was called off on March 4 with six days to go for its start date. There is a belief amongst some industry and defence bodies that the sudden decision to call off the Expo was precipitated by pressure brought on Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD, aka Quad) meeting on March 3. While the objective of preventing Russia from displaying its arms and equipment was achieved, there was a lot of collateral damage in terms of lost goodwill amongst the world’s leading Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) who plan for such events months in advance and who had invested in transporting their wares, setting up stalls, booking hotel accommodation, and other overheads.

The DefExpo cancellation was officially attributed to ‘logistics problems being experienced by participants’ according to a ministry of defence (MoD) statement still visible on the DefExpo official site, but some analysts see it as a cog in the US-led sanctions machinery that is being erected around Russia. The effect on Russian financial institutions and military-industrial complexes would bear upon Russian capability to honour its commitments to its customer nations. In addition to the stranglehold o