The Future of Kashmir

N.C. Asthana

However hard Pakistan might try, short of a ‘limited nuclear war’, nothing is going to alter the status of Kashmir. For all practical purposes, the fate of Kashmir has been sealed now.

According to ministry of home affairs (MHA) and Jammu and Kashmir Police (JKP) data accessed by the online newsmagazine The Print, the number of militants killed in 2020 went up slightly. Public protest actions/ stone pelting went down by 80 per cent, obviously due to the pandemic and the much greater presence of security forces.

However, the JKP estimates that the number of youth joining militancy (167 for 2020) is the second highest in a decade. This is an indicator of their frustration even as they do realise that militancy can no longer help ‘solve’ the issue for them.

Two things are instrumental in determining the portents for security situation. The first is the number of security forces, which is expected to continue at a high level. The second is the pressure on Pakistan to avoid being blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Thus, both terrorist and public protest activities are expected to continue at a low level.

This has little to do with the so-called developmental activities started there since 5 August 2019—militancy was never the consequence of poor development!

DDC Election Results

It would be preposterous to claim that the 110 seats won by the Gupkar Alliance are an indication of people’s support for it. People are unhappy with the abrogation of Article 370 alright, but they also know that even if the Gupkar Alliance were to sweep the assembly polls someday, Article 370 is not going to come back.

Voting for the Gupkar Alliance is therefore just an expression of their impotent indignation. Therefore, the 75 seats of the BJP including three in the Valley also cannot amount to a referendum on the abrogation of the Article 370. Both must be v