Terror and Turmoil

Why ‘Quad 2’ is nothing but sound and fury signifying nothing. An Extract

Talmiz Ahmad

A regional cooperative initiative that has obtained considerable attention in the Indian media is being referred to as ‘Quad 2’ by commentators in Delhi. Briefly, on 18 October 2021, when the Indian external affairs minister, Dr S Jaishankar, was on a visit to Israel, he and his Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid, joined the UAE minister of foreign affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, and the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, in a virtual four-way conversation. This meeting had been preceded by a meeting in Washington on 13 October of the ministers from the US, Israel and the UAE to commemorate the so-called ‘Abraham Accords finalized a year ago.

By joining this trio on 18 October, India appeared to be signaling its participation in a new regional quarter, referred to in Indian media as a ‘minilateral’. And, since this meeting took place soon after the summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in September 2021, which had brought together the US, Japan, Australia, and India, it was natural to view the new quartet as ‘Quad 2 since it included two countries from Quad 1.’ What we know so far is that the Quad 2 will focus on cooperation in trade, climate change energy and maritime security, and that the four ministers have set up a joint working group to coordinate progress on these subjects.

Indian media have exhibited a high level of enthusiasm for this new entity—seeing it, variously, as a ‘strategic shift in the Middle East’; as India and the US taking on China with this Quad; India finding a new role in a changing Middle East, and finally, the Quad providing a ‘significant impetus to India’s prominence in West Asia’. A Pakistani commentator has pointed out that Quad 2 indicates a ‘massive geo-political expansion of the US’s containment strategy’ directed at China, while a Gulf scholar, Hasan Al-Hasan, highlighting the importance that India has traditionally placed on its ties with Iran, has also pointed out that ‘the palpable threat posed by China has pushed India into taking sides in West Asian rivalries, though, he believes, India will attempt to balance its relations with Iran with its close links with the US.

However, in public remarks that are likely to embarrass India, the Israeli ambassador in India, Naor Gilon, said that, while Quad 2 was not against any one country, one of the major factors bringing the four