Sub of the Matter

Rohan Ramesh | Bengaluru

In the near future, the Indian Ocean on either side of the Indian peninsula and to the south of Sri Lanka is likely to be the most active playground of navies. And the most important naval power, with reference to India’s strategic interests, will be China. With China becoming a world power, and the tensions born out of the trade war between the US and China increasing, China is set to strengthen its naval forces.

INS Vela being launched

China, whose strategic thinking has been historically focused on land forces, is now focusing on its navy as a tool of force projection and also to protect its trade interests, particularly its energy supply routes from West Asia.

Given its close defence relationship with Pakistan, China’s naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are of concern to India, more so the Chinese submarine fleet, which can pose a serious threat to the Indian Navy flotillas.

Seven years ago, at the 18th Congress of Chinese Communist Party (CPC), President Xi Jinping laid down the roadmap for China’s development as a naval power.

“China is at once a continental power and a maritime power (haiyang daguo) and it possesses broad maritime strategic interests… These achievements have laid a solid foundation for building a strong maritime power (haiyang qiangguo),” said President Xi.

The Chinese news agency, Xinhua, reported on 31 July 2013, ‘Xi Jinping stresses the need to show greater care about the ocean, understand more about the ocean and make strategic plans for the use of the ocean, push forward the building of a maritime power and continuously make new achievements at the Eighth Collective Study Session of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau.’

No wonder that the Chinese Navy is feverishly beefing up, both its surface fleet as well as the numbers of its submersible vessels. Given the potential for conflict in the region, its submarine fleet is of great interest, considering not just the numbers, but also increasing sophistication and lethality.

Taking the present numbers of the submersible vessels and considering those under construction, the Chinese submarine strength by mid-2020 is likely to be around 58 vessels, compared to India’s 15.

These will include four Jin class (Type-094) SSBNs and six SSNs/SSGNs - two Shang I class (Type-093) and four Shang II class (T