Not Enough

Pravin Sawhney

India needs peace and cooperation with China which Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the 2018 Wuhan informal summit. War is not an option for India since there is a 30-year gap in the technologies and war concepts (how to fight to optimise outcome from available technologies) of the Indian military and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and worse, the Indian military leadership does not understand that a war with the PLA and with the Pakistan Army is not the same. If it did, it would drop the laughable rhetoric of being prepared for a two-front war.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin with defence minister Rajnath Singh

Given the fact that the US is unsure of a war outcome with the PLA in the west Pacific (south China Sea and Taiwan) by itself, it has sought to strengthen its deterrence (military power) in the Indo Pacific region by roping in its military allies’ capabilities and India into its regional US’ Indo Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) defence networks.

At the least, the PLA leads the US military in hypersonic missiles (hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles) which are the backbone of its first line of attack by land-based missiles. And the PLA has advantage of geography. In case of a war, the US’ follow-on forces from other war theatres will be exposed to the PLA’s long-range fires and cyber fires long before they arrive at closer friendly bases to be launched into war. Moreover, the Pentagon has sought 40 per cent increase allocation for its Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) to meet the challenge of then PLA’s Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) firewall comprising land-based missiles, integrated air and missile defence systems, cyber and electronic fires, laser weapons and anti-drone capabilities. The PDI is meant for the US’ force restructuring (for diffused, varied, and temporary bases to meet the PLA’s missiles challenge), strengthening of Hawaii, Guam, and new bases on allies’ territory.

The question is: How can the US that needs India (its geographical location and large military) to deter the PLA, help India win a war with the PLA? A recent case made by senior analysts argues that the US should do more for the India-China border dispute to provide assurance and deterrent support to India. This includes ‘things like joint exercises, emergency senior-level military and defence consultations, and inclusion in Quad statements of the need to defend Indian border claims—all to enhance its deterrence vis-à-vis Beijing.’ Moreover, ‘there should be joint wargaming exercises to develop mutual understanding of the threat of