The year began with a bang, quite literally. United States invaded Venezuela and abducted its President Nicolas Maduro. Despite worldwide condemnation, two days after that US President Donald Trump issued warnings to Columbia, threatening similar action. Going with the flow, he also told Indian government to brace for more tariffs, if it does not stop buying oil from Russia.

Given this, India’s two big foreign policy challenges this year will be the US and Pakistan. In addition to being a problem for the external affairs ministry, Pakistan will also be India’s security and defence challenge since, like in operation Sindoor, it will be supported by China. Interestingly, the answer to both challenges lies in normalisation of ties with China provided India is willing to think strategically. 

It is ironic that India which has pinned all hopes on becoming a major power with help from the US will avoid Prime Minister Modi’s direct meeting with President Trump. The latter can insult the Indian leader to his face too, something that he has done repeatedly in his absence. Over 60 times at different world forums, Trump spoke of bringing a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in the four days clash in May, a credit that India is unwilling to give him. Recently, he has been saying that India has reduced oil purchase from Russia since Modi knows it is important to keep him happy. 

The other reason is that Trump, unlike all US administrations since Obama presidency, has not given a strategic role to India in the Indian Ocean region against China. Instead, a big strategic role has been assigned by the Trump administration to Pakistan including to give regular assessment on Iran which in Trump’s National Security Strategy is labelled an enemy of the US. Besides, the focus of Trump’s foreign policy is on dominance of the western hemisphere; to remove the grown influence of China and Russia from its sphere of influence in the region.

India, however, has put all its eggs in the US basket. In addition to joining the US’ Indo Pacific command’s defence network and aligning India’s foreign policy with US’ interests in the Indo Pacific region, India, within days of Trump’s assumption of office, signed the crucial Mission 500. During his visit to the White House, Modi signed the joint statement with Trump on February 13 which committed India to raise bilateral trade from the present USD 168 billion to USD 500 billion by 2030. 

On Pakistan, after Operation Sindoor where the world concluded that the Pakistan military got the better of the larger Indian military, China is now supporting Pakistan for a bigger role in South Asia. Given the fact that except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian nations are onboard China’s Belt and Road Initiative, this move implies that India’s role as the big brother in its region is in trouble. Clearly, tough times ahead. Nevertheless, may you all have a good 2026!