India-US trade framework and alignments portend unravelling of its strategic autonomy

By Jawahar Bhagwat 

The global geopolitical situation of February 2026 is defined by a paradox: as India moves closer to the United States (US) through a series of interlocking frameworks, the very ‘strategic autonomy’ that New Delhi has guarded for decades is being gradually dismantled. From the threat of punitive tariffs to the technological enclosures of ‘Pax Silica,’ the relationship has shifted from a partnership of mutual interest to a master class in coercion euphemistically called American economic statecraft.

Trade Framework and Tariff Sword

The foundation of this new alignment is a coercive trade framework that treats market access as a tool of political discipline. Since August 2025, the shadow of tariffs has hung over the Indian economy. President Donald Trump characterised these as a response to India’s support for Russian energy. However, in the background was also India’s refusal to accept President Trump’s role in ending the India-Pakistan hostilities of May 2025, which may have affected his ambitions for the Nobel Peace Prize.

President Trump has effectively weaponised the US market, allowing the administration to bypass World Trade Organisation (WTO) norms and use trade as a blunt instrument. For India, this creates a state of perpetual economic insecurity, where trade deals are not settled law but ‘active negotiations’ subject to the whims of the White House.

On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court delivered a landmark ruling that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Court held that while the law allows the president to ‘regulate’ commerce during national emergencies, it does not grant the unilateral power to ‘lay and collect’ tariffs—a power explicitly reserved for Congress under Article I of the Constitution.

While this ruling effectively nullifies billions of dollars in emergency tari