From Setback to Opportunity

Col Mandeep Singh (retd)

In 1961, Edward Lorenz, a meteorology professor at MIT, was working on a computer programme simulating weather patterns when a minor change in one of the variables resulted in the entire pattern being altered drastically. The unexpected result led Lorenz to conclude that small changes in nature can have large consequences; the idea coming to be known as the ‘butterfly effect’ after Lorenz suggested that the flap of a butterfly’s wings might ultimately cause a tornado.

It is not known if a tornado ever started because of the flapping of a butterfly’s wings but small events even in distant places do have serious long-term consequences in faraway places. This has been experienced often in the past and one such event, though not small by any standards, is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War that has serious implications for India and the Indian Army.

A major reason for the ongoing war impacting Indian Army is the huge dependence on arms and equipment from Russia. The extent of the dependence can be assessed by the fact that between 2018 and 2021, Rostec, one of Russia’s largest state-owned defence conglomerates, had contracted military deals worth USD15 billion with India. Though these were primarily for S-400 Triumf and four frigates for the Navy, the deals included the licence-production of 601,427 Kalashnikov Ak-203 assault rifles, launchers and missiles for the 9K338 Igla-S (SA-24 ‘Grinch’) man-portable air-defence systems, 300mm rockets for Smerch multiple rocket launchers, and 125mm Mango armour-piercing, fin-stabilised, discarding-sabot ammunition for T-90S main battle tanks.

The dependence on Russian weapons dates back to early 1960’s and is likely to continue in the near and middle terms as it also comes with mutual benefits to the two sides. New Delhi asserts influence on Moscow as it remains its largest client for military hardware and Moscow’s influence in India comes through its willingness to provide weapons systems and technologies that no other country will export to India. But this symbiotic relationship comes with attendant challenges also as it gives an undue leverage to one side (Russia) as India remains so overly dependent on Russia that its army can literally stop in its tracks without an assured supply of spares and components. It is not surprising that a report by the United States Congressional Research Service (CRS) stated that without the Russian origin equipment Indian Army cannot operate effectively.

The dependence on Russian hardware has had its challenges in the past also as the supply of spares and components were disrupted, adversely affecting operational readiness of key military weapons systems and equipment. As recently as 2020, defence minister Rajnath Singh during his visit to Moscow had pressed his Russian counterpart for air transportation of the spares and related equipment needed to maintain the minimum readiness levels.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict had further aggravated the situation as spares supply and after-sales support for key Russian-origin equipment and platforms have been impacted. Capital procurement, including Very Short-Range Air Defence (VSHORAD) systems and Ka-226T utility helicopters are also likely to be stalled for now. The other projects that may be affected are the manufacture of anti-tank ammunition under Project Mango and the long-term upgrade of the licence-built BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles and T-90 tanks.

The Ukraine Angle

Besides the dependence on Russia, a related issue that also imp