Danger Ahead

Pravin Sawhney

Through 2024, India refused to normalise relations with China and Pakistan, two nations with which India has military lines. This situation is expected to continue in 2025 since India has decided that aligning its geopolitical strategy with the US, which is over 13,000km away and no longer the sole great power, benefits its national interests more than peace and stability in the neighbourhood.

Interestingly, both China and Pakistan want normal ties with India for geopolitical reasons. For one, India is a prominent global south nation with favourable geography in the changing world order where the global geopolitics is being shaped in Asia Pacific by the present three great powers: the US, China and Russia. For another, India as the most populous nation in the world can help stabilise the new global institutions like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which are supported by China and Russia.

It was believed by most analysts that the 21 October 2024 announcement regarding disengagement by the Indian military and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) would pave the way for normalisation of ties. This hope was bolstered by positive commentaries in the Chinese media contrary to the ground reality. Given that India follows a multi-aligned foreign policy, where it has time tested ties with Russia, it was necessary for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan in 2024, where Chinese President Xi Jinping would also be p