Pravin Sawhney

Given past trends and despite the Narendra Modi government’s declared commitment to national security, the 2019-2020 defence allocations are likely to see only a nominal increase, primarily catering for inflation.

Will it help in war preparedness? The answer to this question is obvious, as are the reasons which are well-known. However, there is another reason – important, but little known, and which would be the first of its kind in independent India.

First the known reasons. Figures show that in 2018-2019, of the defence allocation of Rs 2,79,305 crore (excluding defence pension of Rs 1,08,853 crore), only Rs 93,982 crore capital revenue was available for new acquisitions. The rest went into pay, allowances and upkeep of manpower.

Since the Indian army is manpower-intensive, most experts and the government believe that the 1.3 million (13 lakh) personnel should be reduced considerably for finances to be made available for modernisation.

This, however, will not happen beyond tweaking. Based on the assessment that army needs to combat twin threats – internal more than external – army chief General Bipin Rawat has announced hybrid warfare as the task for his force. This military strategy requires the army to fight unconventional (Pakistan-sponsored terrorism) war and prepare for conventional wars.

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In military terms, this is linear warfare in single land domain, which requires other services – air force, navy and force multipliers like cyber, space and electronic warfare – to support army’s conventional war plans.

General Rawat’s operationalisation of the 2004 Cold Start doctrine by raising of Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) soon for Pakistan and China are meant to give primacy to the army in this war. Clearly, hybrid warfare is manpower-intensive.

Based on the army’s threat assessment, which suits the Modi government’s political agenda of pipping Pakistan as the main enemy, and its foreign policy objective of labelling terrorism as the main threat to global peace, the army and the air force want to build war-fighting capability (weapons acquisitions) based upon the 2009 approved two-and-a-half front war-fighting agenda – conventional wars with Pakistan and China in addition to the proxy war.

Since the navy operates in open seas and th