The May 2020 Ladakh crisis marks the turning point in India-China relations since both sides have crossed each other’s red lines. By grabbing 1,000sqkm of Indian territory in Ladakh, China has made it known that bilateral peace and stability will be on its terms. Incapable of evicting the PLA forcefully, and unwilling to accept Beijing’s military coercion, India has become United States’ de facto military ally to purportedly contain China by signing the sensitive Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

In Indian judgement, possibility of horizonal escalation in the Indian Ocean region with US’ supposed help would deter China from escalation on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The wisdom of Indian judgement can only be gauged if the relationship is tested. As of now, what appears more probable is that the disengagement and partial de-escalation of opposing forces in Ladakh, whenever it happens, would be on PLA’s terms.

Since both sides would permanently hold the Line of Actual Control (LAC), meaningful de-induction of Indian forces from the northern and eastern theatres is ruled out. Unfortunately, the PLA threat will increase not diminish in 2021. As it will be preparing for the intelligensized war, it hopes, in my estimation, to be ready for a conflict against India by the end of 2023.

Being non-contact and invisible, this war which places premium on Artificial Intelligence would have four distinctive technology features: Dominance of electromagnetic spectrum; autonomy; drones and unmanned systems; and human-machine collaboration and combat teaming. This war will not be a border war limited to salami slicing as the Indian military believes. It will be war of occupation where there would be minimal loss of PLA soldiers’ blood. Given the unbridgeable mismatch between the conventional capabilities of the two sides, India’s nuclear deterrence would be rendered useless.



The reason why PLA would be ready by end 2023 is that Indian military, even seven months into the crisis, remains oblivious about what lies ahead. Under the Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, the Indian military is three decades behind the PLA in its war concepts (for campaign); and tactics, techniques and procedures (for battles). While it is preparing for war with ‘human soldiers in the lead’, the war that PLA will fight would have ‘machines with autonomy in the lead.’