Before it’s Too Late

Gp Capt. A.K. Sachdev (retd)

Had the Covid-19 pandemic not thrown its morbid shadow over the 2021 edition of Aero India Show at Bangalore, it could have been the venue for demonstrative contests between frontline contenders vying for attention of the Indian Air Force (IAF) which is on a quest for combat aircraft to bolster its dwindling fighter strength.

With top executives from most of the interested original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) expected to stay away, and with at least one of the hot challengers, Saab, deciding not to participate in the Show, aggressive lobbying and one upmanship-driven aerial displays appear to be ruled out. However, the underpinnings of a competition will no doubt be palpable as the context of a selection process for 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) for the IAF provides a backdrop to the Show. This article looks at the MRFA quest, its background, the main contenders, and its prognosis.

The Need

In the hazy and distant past, the IAF was authorised a build-up to 64 combat aircraft squadrons—a figure brought down to 45 and later to 42; however, that figure was attained only in the 1980s and thereafter started declining. The present strength (according to open sources) is around 30 squadrons, a figure that is inexorably reducing due to attrition and with old aircraft being phased out. Over the next five years, this figure is expected to be diminished by two squadrons per year, unless new inductions accrue.

The figure of 42 squadrons is written about as if, once achieved, it would empower India to meet all airpower needs in case of a two-front war with China and Pakistan, a possibility ever closer with Chinese misadventures in Ladakh and elsewhere. However, that figure is dated and, if a fresh appraisal was done, may have to be amended upwards. Possibly that discussion never takes place because the figure of 42 itself looks to be a distant dream, at least two decades away.

Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria, the present chief of air staff (CAS), has publicly admitted that there is no possibility of reaching the figure of 42 even by end 2030, and that the best that can be hoped for by then is 36 to 38 squadrons. He is also on record as having stated that, if the 42-squadron figure is to be achieved even by end-2040, another 450 combat aircraft need to be inducted by then, given the current reduction rate. The majority of this replenishment would be the Tejas variants, of which around 200 are exp