Asian Hegemon

Why India’s strategy of stalling China may not ensure permanent peace. An extract

Rajiv Dogra

It is China’s record of deception that keeps Taiwan on edge. But why should Taiwan be on guard? After all, the economic relations between China and Taiwan have steadily increased. In 2018, more than 100,000 Taiwanese businesses were operating in the mainland, and nearly 40 per cent of Taiwan’s exports went to China.

This is sizeable, yet the volume of trade and investments is by itself not enough to propitiate China. It wants the fulfilment of its one-China ambition. There are two possible ways in which it might pursue that objective. It could launch a sudden invasion, taking the US and much of the world by surprise. In its present procrastinative state, the US policy of strategic ambiguity leaves unanswered what it might do in the event of an invasion by China on Taiwan. Let us assume that after mulling endlessly over the issue, it eventually rouses itself to action.

By the time it does so, China would have got the first mover advantage. Despite losses of men and material, its forces would have taken control of some part of the island. This would mean that by then an American intervention will be in the form of an invading force against the Chinese army already ensconced in Taiwan. In the frantic battle that follows, American forces will be faced with an onslaught of Chinese weapons.

As the war escalates, the US might respond with stealth fighters and stealthy submarines. Since both sides will battle for air and sea superiority, they might simultaneously try to blind one another with cyber operations, electronic warfare and space attacks. Eventually, and that is if the US prevails in this high-tech battle, the US army would have to put boots on ground in great numbers. This is the trickier part because the logistics of maintaining a supply chain going at short notice, and from far away, could be a major issue. There is no guarantee that the US will be able to quickly overwhelm the Chinese army, and the Americans do not relish counting body bags.

But it might happen differently because China may not want to start a war over Taiwan, at least not immediately. It is conscious that invading Taiwan may not mean easy victory. On the contrary, its forces might face severe and prolonged resistance. China will also be consciou