Agent Provocateur

A FORCE Report

It is sweltering in Kashmir. As the temperature rises to 36 degrees, the political climate too remains heated. The regional political parties have remained resistant despite the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) attempts over the past five years to undermine mainstream politics in the Kashmir Valley. Even with the 2022 delimitation exercise, which mainstream parties described as gerrymandering in favour of the BJP, the BJP has not made any inroads and chose not to contest three seats in the Kashmir Valley in the recently concluded general elections.

However, mainstream regional parties, especially the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the National Conference (NC), seem jittery after the jailed mainstream leader Engineer Rashid defeated NC vice-president Omar Abdullah. Rashid won big. He got more votes than Abdullah and Sajjad Lone combined. For Rashid's supporters, it demonstrates his popularity with the ordinary people, and his connection with the masses despite being in jail for five years.

In Rashid’s absence, it was his 23-year-old son, Abrar Rashid, who launched a vigorous emotional campaign across the 18 Assembly segments of north Kashmir, using social media extensively. His slogan was simple: ‘Jail ka badla vote say’ (revenge for jail with vote).

The slogan originated in Pakistan with Pakistani leader Imran Khan’s supporters first: ‘Zulm ka Badla Vote Say’ (revenge for oppression with vote). It was later adopted in Kashmir by the PDP leader Waheed Para, who replaced zulm with jail when he was campaigning from the Srinagar constituency against the NC candidate Aga Ruhullah Mehdi.

But when Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) decided to contest polls, Abrar Rashid raised the slogan more passionately. With hundreds of people in jail and Rashid being a well-known face among them, the slogan resonated with the people, who came out in large numbers to vote for him. Women voters, in particular, were moved and voted in droves. This emotional tsunami shocked the NC, PDP and the Peoples Conference, which was supported by the Apni Party, in north Kashmir.

Omar Abdullah was so unaware of the political upheaval coming from north Kashmir that on the day of the counting, he was at Royal Springs Golf Course in a running suit, dismissing early trends favouring Rashid. However, as the gap between him and Rashid widened, he acknowledged defeat.

The defeat had a deep impact on the National Conference. The party couldn’t celebrate the wins of its two MPs, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi from Srinagar and Mian Altaf from the crucial south Kashmir seat, which now includes regions of Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch.

The victory of independent candidate Haji Hanifa in Ladakh is seen as a strategic move by the NC. After the INDIA alliance chose its candidate, the NC leadership in the region resigned, allowing Hanifa to run as an independent. This manoeuvre was intended to maintain NC influe