View from Sri Lanka | Experiments with Frankenstein

Security implications of the jihadist victory in Syria, for the South Asian region

Dhanuka Dickwella

A great reason for rebranding is to avoid being outdated. It was not just the big corporations that took this famous comment by Sir Richard Branson to heart and proactively rebranded their organisations. A Syrian terrorist leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, did one of the most dramatic rebranding of our times. Leading Jabhat al-Nusra, an al Qaeda affiliate during the Syrian civil war, he realised the importance of branding his terror outfit as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham to survive the powerful state actors from Russia to the United States who hated everything, even a decimetre close to al Qaeda.

When his organisation was put on the proscribed list of transnational terrorist entities, he went for another rebranding. This time he chose a user-friendly, innocent sounding acronym ‘HTS’. The letters stand for ‘Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’ or ‘Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant’. Whatever the objective of liberating the Levant meant for al-Jolani, his preferred methodology was armed violence directed against a state, a group, a religious minority, and the very idea of freedom. Unlike the previous times, Jolani was not alone in the last rebranding. Syria-based Salafi-jihadist terror groups such as Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din became the wingmen of al-Jolani.

True to the promise of the very concept of rebranding, his efforts paid. al-Jolani managed to avoid the spotlight and survive another day while all his jihadi colleagues were sent to where any evil man would be sent to by the Syrian, Iranian, Russian, and American forces in the Syrian war. From being a merciless jihadi hailing from the notorious al Qaeda, whose purpose was beheading every living being who opposed his extremist ideas to becoming a ‘jihadi light’ where state intelligence apparatus tolerated his existence, Jolani’s HTS has been a success story. He is even given media coverage and portrayed as a moderate rebel who fought for the liberation of oppressed Syrian people. If only those who were brutally murdered by him and his terror faction could speak!

Now he is back at it. Tearing apart the fragile agreement known as ASTANA format between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, which guaranteed the peace and stability of Syria, he along with tens of other organisations have overthrown the Syrian government, with the tacit support of Turkish President Erdogan. Surprisingly, the westerners whose alarm bells should have been ringing continuously seem to be cheering this onslaught.

Their reason is an oversimplification of the ground facts by interpreting what is unfolding in Syria as a colossal failure of the Russians, Iranians, and Bashar al Assad. They are not entirely wrong and as geopolitical opponents of the Russian-Iranian power, they could very well be content with the outcome. What they are conveniently ignoring, however, is that there is a real possibility of this whole theatre being hijacked by ruthless extremist factions, as is always the case, and al-Jolani himself who has a USD 10 million dollar bounty, suddenly turning into Salafist-Jihadist killer that he was. Although ISIS and al Qaeda remain shadowy forces from what they used to be in Levant and globally, Syria could very well attract tens of such bad actors. In the beginning, their guns, vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIEDs), and throat-slitting will be directed against the Syrians, Iranians, and Russians. Soon they will go behind their most hated idea of civilisation—the West and their liberal life. While this theatre is very much evolving and dynamic, it will be important for the South Asian states and their security apparatus to take early precautionary actions for very good reasons.

South Asia has a mixed record of being a hotbed of radical Islamic terrorism. Compared to the MENA (Middle East and north Africa) region, the SAARC area is relatively politically stable with the exception of Afghanistan, which is under Taliban rule. Whether or not Kabul could be recognised as a dysfunctional state is a matter of academic debate. Surely there have been terrible incidents in the region directly related to terror acts motivated by radical Islam. At times even the states were accused of being sponsors and patrons of terrorist acts against their foes. Lately, however, transnational Islamic terrorism in the SAARC region has been checked and controlled due to the strength, vigilance, and cooperation of the state actors. South Asia’s security remains largely unaffected by the Middle East theatre so far. But things could change fast and unexpectedly if the Syrian Jihadists and their affiliated organisations suddenly develop a bright idea of an Islamic Caliphate yet again. The outcome of the Syrian civil war is far from clear, and many factors could change overnight. None of Syria’s patrons are yet fully invested in the theatre and when they do, Jolani and his colleague’s luck might run out very fast.

But one does not need divine wisdom to know what a dysfunctional Syria or a large swath of ungoverned Syria means for part of the world where a concentrated Muslim population is inhabited. Such a lawless space would be an opportunity that would be exploited by not just adventure seekers but also the extremist factors who remain underground well within the societies of South Asia. It is not necessarily a global cause, a doctrine that will drive such individuals to arms. The region is embedded with poverty, social issues, and even state-level discrimination in some parts which are critical reasons for an individual to pursue a different path.

While Nepal and Bhutan are largely free from such a threat, the same cannot be said for the rest of the countries. Afghanistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Pakistani Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) Sipah-e-Sahaba, Jaish ul-Adl and the tens of their affiliated regional terror organisations active on Indian soil, Bangladesh’s Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami are all potential threats which might very well end up in Syria just like their brothers in arms from the Central Asian states.

Then there are other concerns. The caretaker government in Bangladesh recently released Jashimuddin Rahmani, the chief of the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist outfit. Dr Yunus’s government has been accused of being soft on radical Islamist groups. Bangladesh’s political instability and the prevailing chaos could easily be exploited by opportunist, malign factors that have been hiding in the closet.

Pakistan’s ungoverned Baluchistan, southern Punjab Province as well as Myanmar-based Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army or ARSA’s success, the terrible state of affairs in the Rakhine province are all causes for concern for the SAARC region in the current context. The alleged modus vivendi between different ranks of Taliban and the three transnational terror groups of al Qaeda, al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province could have grave consequences. Although being in the seat of power, the Taliban government has no international recognition which would otherwise require accountability and an obligation to uphold international law and commitment in controlling terrorism and related activities. Other than the backdoor deals, no state actor can openly sign an agreement with the Taliban government in cooperating against emerging threats or sealing the border for adventure seekers.

Sri Lanka after its devastating easter bombing has seemed to gain an upper hand in this delicate matter. Besides with its improving economic outlook, it might very well hold fort. The challenge that will follow forthwith is not necessarily the outflow of radicalised minds towards the Levant but their eventual return with destabilising ideas and established terror networks. A grandiose success for al-Jolani in Syria, would encourage such dubious terror bosses to try their luck in the South Asian region where there will be enough human capital and patrons who are keen on destabilising the subcontinent.

While wishing for the stability of the Syrian state, it is time South Asian security establishments start an active dialogue in border security, monitoring the virtual spaces and taking note of the evolving trends. It will be of paramount importance to find a compromise to cooperate with the governments in Kabul as well as Naypyidaw. No one needs another 26/11 Mumbai or a 21/4 Easter attack. Precaution is always better than cure in such chaotic times, especially when CNN gives airtime to an al Qaeda affiliated terrorist with a bounty by their own government. The very last thing the SAARC region would wish to see will be a local al-Jolani emerging as a ripple effect of a conflict thousands of miles away.

(The writer is executive director, The Asian Group of Literature, Sri Lanka)