Maritime security is a growing concern for the island nation
Pramudith D Rupasinghe
Historically, the Bay of Bengal has been a main maritime battleground for empires and regional powers vying for trade, territory, and power, etc. Beginning in the 1500s, European powers, including Portugal, the Netherlands, France, and later Great Britain, built trading posts along the coast, increasingly growing their power through their navies. Maritime dominance enabled the British East India Company to establish colonial control across the region in the 18th century, a period of significant, or rather peak of its growth for the company.
Sri Lanka’s strategic location at the crossroads of major sea lanes made it a highly desirable prize due to its geopolitical significance. The historical pattern of maritime power projection through the bay shows how it enabled territorial conquest, resource extraction and many more, repeatedly compromising Sri Lanka’s sovereignty because of its strategic location. Is the risk in Sri Lanka unchanged? Is it unaware of a larger, silent storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal?
Safe Oceans, a Myth?
The Bay of Bengal today is a crucial maritime area, increasingly important economically and strategically; everyone seems to have a salty drop of water from it. This area boasts abundant natural resources: fisheries supporting millions, potential offshore oil and gas, and vital shipping lanes carrying about a quarter of global trade. The increasing challenges to water security are amplified by climate change, putting Bangladesh at severe risk due to saltwater intrusion and devastating floods that compromise freshwater resources; the scale and the number of metrological disasters faced by Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India, states near the Bay of Bengal every year indicate that.
Research by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) highlights that the Bay’s major littoral states in the above-mentioned areas are increasingly viewing maritime resources as vital national interests, specifically given the context of today. A study published in the ‘Journal of the Indian Ocean Region’ highlighted increasing militarisation of the Bay, especially naval expansion by the regional powers. The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) has documented rising instances of maritime boundary disputes and illegal fishing, showing clearly the trends in growing competition for diminishing resources. Sri Lanka’s experience during its civil war demonstrated how maritime security severely affects the territorial integrity of the island nation, with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) developing naval capabilities that challenged state control of territorial waters, and as well as the safety and security of the international sea.
Bangladesh’s Growing Interests, and China’s Helping Hand: Concerns?
Bangladesh’s unique maritime security challenges show possibility of escalating into major conflicts in the region and beyond. Even though the 2012 maritime border agreement with Myanmar and in 2014 with India, settled through UNCLOS arbitration, can be considered diplomatic wins, the implementation of both remains challenging today. In the end, Bangladesh has gained significant maritime economic zones through these two agreements, zones encompassing valuable fisheries and natural gas reserves estimated at 15–20 trillion cubic feet.
A recent report by the Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRD) emphasised that securing these resources is vital for Bangladesh’s economic development and food security, supporting its rapidly growing population which is now over 170 million as per the latest census. The problem of illegal fishing still remains, particularly from larger neighbours. According to Chatham House, Bangladesh’s navy and coast guard do not have adequate human and logistical resources to properly patrol its territorial waters. The expansion of Chinese investment in Bangladesh’s maritime infrastructure, especially, the Payra deep-sea port, has led to growing concerns among the neighbours about China’s new strategic positioning in terms of control of resources and security in the region.
Probability of a Historical Future?
The Bay of Bengal facing a rising risk of conflict in the next few decades, driven by the combined pressures of climate change, resource scarcity, and geopolitical rivalry, seems not a fiction any more. A probability? As per The Asian Development Bank’s projections, by 2050, freshwater scarcity will have an impact on one billion people in South Asia, potentially triggering water disputes that extend to maritime domains. In the same way that in 1970 no one was concerned about Tchad Lake’s destiny turning into a regional conflict that seemed to have no solution. Historical patterns suggest that control of strategic maritime spaces often precedes attempts to secure land territories or resources. Sri Lanka’s dependence on maritime trade routes, coupled with the strategic value of ports like Hambantota and Trincomalee, makes it especially vulnerable to the growing presence of China, and its increasing competition with India.
Whereas large-scale conflicts between regional super-powers for maritime resources are highly unlikely at least in the near future, hybrid conflicts, including the use of maritime and land militias, coast guards, and economic coercion, and maritime confrontations between the navies are increasingly probable. Bangladesh’s rapidly growing population, and growing scarcity of maritime resources, would be a driver for it to explore its future beyond its seas. Directly or via a bigger helping hand.
History shows that these ‘grey zone’ tactics could gradually weaken Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A recent research carried out by the Royal United Services Institute shows that control of desalination plants, offshore freshwater sources, and sea trade routes may become considerable security threats by 2040.
Unless strong regional security structures and collaborative governance are in place, the Bay of Bengal could again become a battleground for major powers vying for resources and influence, jeopardizing the sovereignty of smaller nations like Sri Lanka. The government’s sensible response to the island’s growing need for a stronger navy may be key to avoiding troubles the future seems to have in its store.
(The writer is a Sri Lankan writer and humanitarian)