The Trump and Zelensky face off has reset power equations between Europe and the US, at least for now
Dhanuka Dickwella
‘I always believe when your political opponents are committing suicide, there’s no reason to murder them’
Former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, John Boehner
There is no better time in history to emphasize the truthfulness of those words than now if you were a Russian strategist or a politician. For three years, the collective West, or as they call themselves, the free world, backed the Ukrainian leadership unequivocally. It wasn’t just the military aid, financial support, or diplomatic support. A deep-rooted ideological backing based on a notion of a divine battle between the democratic world and autocratic tyranny was at the core of it. The Western leaders and the media rallied their populations against Russia and everything that was Russian.
Backing Ukraine had an underlining extension of the unipolar world, namely the strengthening and re-emergence of trans-Atlanticism. European security architecture, European political alignment with the United States (US), and a unified voice of the West were the pillars of this doctrine. No American decision was taken without the consultation of Europe, which portrayed Washington and Brussles on an equal footing. At times, the world was puzzled as to who really called the shots in decision making or whether the tail was wagging the dog. The European leadership, such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Marcon, Pedro Sanchez, Andrzej Duda, and even European foreign ministers such as Anlena Barebok, Radosław Sikorski, Kęstutis Budrys, appeared to be punching above their weight concerning the policy making of the West overshadowing Anthony Blinken and Joe Biden himself. Brussels was in the driving seat while Washington was a happy passenger.
Emboldened by this iron-clad trans-Atlantic solidarity and political say, Europe was trying to influence not just the European continent but also faraway Eurasian regions expanding up to Central Asia in an attempt to further isolate and surround Russia. The rallying point of the newfound alignment had a basic premise of identifying Russia as a malign influence elevating from a competitor to the arch-enemy. The objective was to impose a strategic defeat over Russia and work against Russian interests globally. The European influence over the peripheral parts of the Eurasian continent was spreading like a wildfire even in Russian underbellies such as South Caucuses and Carpathian mountains with the unwavering support of the trans-Atlantic cooperation. Looking at Armenia and Moldova, two states that matter to Russia’s strategic depth yet have accelerated a West-leaning policy while adopting policies and values that resemble the trans-Atlantic way of governance, is evident for that. But this battle became a stalemate when the Russians became resilient, adoptive, and were steadfastly backed by the global south and her allies. No amount of trans-Atlanticism could make a dent in Russian global influence.
When the American election cycle kicked in, the Europeans unwisely aligned with the Democratic candidate. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, went even further by actively campaigning against a vengeful Donald Trump candidacy in a swing state. Instead of attacking Trump directly, the European leaders attacked the values his camp represented and criticised populism, which was Trump’s second name. Trump allies such as Elon Musk were facing imminent scrutiny. European political elites appeared unable to read the room and utterly failed in forming a contingency plan. Unfortunately for them, their worst fears became reality. Instead of an extension of Joe Biden’s trans-Atlanticism and all the related policies under a potential Kamala Harris in charge, an assertive Euro-sceptic Trump came to the White House. True to the very saying of ‘you reap what you sow,’ the Europeans and the Ukrainians are now faced with a reality they did not imagine even in their wildest dreams. Antagonising candidate Trump at the time has come to bite them back.
What took place in the White House on 28 February 2025 was not just a cold-blooded political murder of Zelensky but a daylight assassination of a doctrine. A doctrine where Europe was way more important to the US than its own borders, a doctrine where European security architecture was an integral part of American security and a victorious Ukraine was a reflection of Western strategic victory, a doctrine which solidified Washington and Brussels as brothers in arms. The White House murder has since changed the entire geopolitical landscape.
Now, Europe is categorically a continent less important to the Americans, and the Russian threat is lost in the Atlantic Ocean. A victorious Ukraine has an entirely different perception. It is no longer the Ukrainian military that matters to the Americans but the Ukrainian minerals. The victory against Russia is no longer inflicting a strategic defeat or weakening it but peeling off the Dragon-Bear alliance with China. The US sees Europe as a spent force, a union that has effectively lost its soft power and any meaningful global influence. The much-respected designation of European High Representative who always got red carpet welcome has become an unimportant designation where the title no longer opens the doors to American power circles. A parade of European leaders trying to court Trump has ended in utter failure.
The European battle to stay relevant, win a high chair in the club, and have the unequivocal backing of the US has lost even before it started. The European effort of scrambling veteran firefighters such as Emmanuel Macron and Keir Steimer has hit a brick wall. The geopolitical terrain beneath the Europeans has shifted to a totally different plateau. The global power balance is on the verge of a rest, and unfortunately, Ukraine, Europe, and proponents of liberal international order have been dealt a summary execution at the Oval office.
Rounds and rounds of European summits to strengthen the negotiating hands and show force and unity did not impress any of the intended target audiences. Instead, it highlighted the divisions, polarity, and fragile nature of European politics. Macron’s strongman bravado was dispelled by Russians with an overnight missile campaign all over Ukraine. Europe’s bluff has been called, leaving only the self-annihilating, mutually destructive nuclear option of seizing Russian assets. Europe would not dare to do that in such turmoil. The White House murder has, by extension, dealt a death blow to a reeling Europe.
The murder at the White House transpires to the end of an era and the expiration of a solidified doctrine and its backers. Will this only last until the next election cycle of the US, or will it be the new American direction in the 21st century? This remains to be seen.