The new drones from the US will be an inflection point in warfare since World War II
Maj. Gen. Atanu Pattanaik (retd)
When India signed a deal worth USD3 billion with the US State Department to buy 31 armed MQ-9B SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones last year, the country was basically making a major transition in warfare, one that is touted as the most significant, revolutionary and disruptive development since World War II. The 31 drones will be allocated as follows—15 for the Indian Navy and eight each for the Indian Army and Indian Air Force.
India will primarily use drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. The leased SeaGuardians have helped the Indian Navy monitor over 14 million square miles in the Indian Ocean. Interestingly, these are the same drones that the US had refused to sell years back to its Nato ally Turkey for its counterinsurgency operations against the Kurdish militants in its south. That rebuff led Turkey to embark upon its own programme and come up with a sure-fire winner, the Bayraktar TB2, which has proved to be highly effective in intelligence gathering, surveillance, and targeted strikes against various insurgent groups within and outside of Turkey.
Drones are revolutionary in the way artillery or tanks were once a game changer. Though drones have been in use for over two decades by the US in its Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), the first widespread use of unmanned aircraft in general, its coming of age in classical combat, was demonstrated in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this conflict small tactical drones effectively provided intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support for Azerbaijan ground manoeuvres. This added battlefield situational awareness and contributed to the eventual defeat and withdrawal of Armenian forces from the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
In the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, drones have been the most used offensive weapon systems, overwhelming the best and most sophisticated air defences and imposing prohibitive costs on the defender. Ukrainians and Russians have both employed drones successfully to limit freedom of movement, provide intelligence, and conduct direct strike attacks. The tiny, inexpensive first-person view (FPV) drone has proved to be one of the most potent weapons in this war, where conventional warplanes are relatively rare because of a dense concentration of anti-aircraft systems near front lines. FPVs, originally designed for civilian racers, are controlled by pilots on the ground and often crashed into targets, laden with explosives.
In the West Asian theatre, Israel has faced barrages of drones over the past year from the Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and from Iran, overwhelming its fabled air defences and imposing heavy costs. In the Red Sea, the US Navy destroyers have shot down 38 drones and multiple missiles but what worries Pentagon is the cost of using expensive naval missiles which can run up to USD2.1 million a shot to destroy unsophisticated Houthi drones estimated at USD2,000 each.
Drones are now routinely employed as a cost-effective alternative to traditional expensive and complex manned aircraft. Drones are not just in the hands of advanced national militaries and highly trained air force pilots, but now any soldier or combatant or jihadi insurgent could find themselves in a position to operate or defend against drones. This has called for a major review in dealing with this emerging threat which demands a radical departure in the way wars are waged. Little wonder then that all major military powers of the world like the US, Russia, China, Turkey, Israel and Iran have invested significantly in the development, production and operationalisation of drones.
Major Military Powers
The US & Israel: Developing cutting edge weapons technologies in tandem, the US and Israel have the most versatile and lethal package of drones. Israel has been facing existential threats ever since its inception as a country in 1948 and it did what it generally does best—innovate. In so doing, it built some of the first operational reconnaissance drones. Reconnaissance drones are important because it allows a military to see enemy operations and deployments without endangering the lives of soldiers. It can also help to monitor a situation as a battle unfolds. One of Israel’s first drones, Zahavan ‘Scout’ was used in the 1982 Lebanon War. At 22 kg, it could fly for several hours.
But drones wouldn’t find their full calling until 2001 when one of the first drone strikes would be carried out by the US General Atomics MQ-1 Predator. The innovations that led to the Predator also had Israeli origins in Abraham Karem, an aeronautical engineer born in Iraq who moved to Israel as a teenager and eventually founded a company in the US. Using experience gained as a designer for the Israel Air Force, he designed Amber, a drone forerunner of the Predator. The US Reaper drones also known as Predator Bs, are widely regarded as the most advanced drones in the world, with an endurance of over 27 hours with payload and an ability to perform diverse functions, ranging from covert surveillance to full-fledged offence. It is claimed that there are 50 startups in Israel making 165 types of UAVs. By 2013, Israel was the world’s largest exporters of drones. Half of those drones go to Europe and a third to Asia. Israel is also pioneering anti-drone technology.
Iran: In April 2024, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, low flying cruise missiles and drones against targets in Israel, almost all of which were shot down by a quickly assembled coalition including the US, Britain and France. The cost of intercepting the huge attack was put at about USD1 billion and in some cases, US F-15s involved in the operation, ran out of missiles going after drones, shooting them down at close range with autocannons. Iran already has one of the world’s largest drone arsenal, and has supplied a variety of domestically designed and produced drones to the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran has also supplied its drone technology to Russia, which mass produces the weapons for its war in Ukraine at the Alabuga special economic zone.
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