The World in a Flux

How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created geopolitical uncertainties. An extract

Shyam Saran

It is not clear how this war will end, but no outcome will qualify as a victory for Putin’s Russia. Russia was already a declining economy and a much-diminished power since the end of the Cold War. Its decline as a major power is likely to accelerate as a result of this war. This comprehensive and sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and the Western countries in general have literally unplugged Russia from the global economic and financial system. In geopolitical terms, Russia has, by its aggressive actions, triggered a degree of unity and cohesion in Europe that is unprecedented.

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, European countries will be spending much more on their own defence. The US has led the Western response through its own severe bilateral sanctions on Russia and also through a global diplomatic offensive to isolate Russia internationally. This has created a dilemma for countries friendly to Russia, including India and China, but much more so for China, which, just weeks before the invasion had signed up a Sino-Russian strategic partnership with ‘no limits’ and had declared that there were no forbidden areas for cooperation between the two countries.

For India, its relationship with Russia is still important, but mainly as a source of certain categories of high-end defence technologies, such as nuclear submarines and the S-400 air defence system. But while the Sino-Russian partnership has been on an ascendant curve since the end of the Cold War, Indo-Russian relations have been on a steady decline. China and Russia have a convergent view of the evolving international situati