The Next Major War

Xi Jinping Has Already Been Prepared to Take High Strategic Risks in the South China Sea and Along the Northern Indian Border

Ross Babbage, author of the new book The Next Major War: Can the US and its Allies Win Against China?

What drove you to write this book? What were the main challenges you faced in the process of researching and writing?

The primary drivers have been the greatly increased risks of major war we now face in the Indo-Pacific, the critical need to better understand how such a war can be prevented and, if such a war begins, how it can be won.

We are in this situation primarily because China’s president, Xi Jinping, has stated repeatedly his determination to seize control of Taiwan and promised his people that this ‘must be realized and it can without a doubt be realized.’

On the other side of the Pacific, President Biden has stated four times since his election that if China attacks Taiwan, American forces will be committed to defend this island democracy of 24 million people. With Beijing and Washington at loggerheads on this fundamental issue, the prospect of major war between the world’s two largest powers is probably greater now than at any time since the Second World War.

So far most of the research and writing on these issues has focussed on how such a war might begin and the military challenges that would confront each side in the first few days and weeks. There has been little analysis of the markedly different conceptions of such a war in China and the US, the divergent preparations being made by the two countries and the assumptions each side is making about how such a war would be fought, the likely phases of such a conflict and how it would probably end. This book addresses these issues and also discusses the economic and business impacts, the consequences for international trade and technology and also the implications for domestic and alliance cohesion and resilience.

This project posed few major challenges other than the complexities of analysing and integrating such a large number of variables. Serious research was conducted on the key dimensions, global experts were consulted, several closed workshops were conducted, and draft judgements were then reviewed by senior practitioners. We worked hard to get it right.

What are the key differences between the Chinese and US concepts of war?

The two approaches differ substantially. The primary US focus has been on preparing for a conventional military struggle, largely in the maritime, air, cyber and space domains. The assumption has been that Beijing would probably start a war by launching a military assault on Taiwan or possibly against an American ally in the Western Pacific and that this would draw the US into a direct fight with China.

The regime in Beijing, on the other hand, believes that it is already engaged in an intense struggle with the US, its allies and partners. The Chinese approach involves the application of pressure in a much broader range of domains including ideology, political influence, coercion, subversion and disruption to weaken, divide and dis-integrate opposing societies prior to the use of any kinetic force. China is also pursuing dominance in key civil and military technologies and industries through industrial-scale technology theft, vast business subsidies and a range of aggressive mercantilist pr