The Dragon’s Fangs

AVM Manmohan Bahadur (retd)

An international air show is a nation’s way of announcing to the world that it is a serious contender in the arms business. However, when it comes to China, there is also a subtle aim of letting the world know that through its economic and technological advancements it is a rightful claimant to a power nibbling at the unrivalled super power status of America.

The recently concluded 10th Zhuhai Air Show (11-16 November 2014) was no different in its aim than its earlier versions, and China attempted to announce to the world that it is making rapid progress in R&D and manufacturing of aircraft and air armament. Though a large number of platforms were showcased, this article deals with the implications for India of three important pieces of equipment, viz., the J-31 stealth aircraft, development of transport aircraft and the CX-1 supersonic missile.

J-31 Stealth Aircraft
The 2012 Zhuhai edition had highlighted unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and helicopters but the 2014 air show was all about the J-31 stealth aircraft. The aircraft was unveiled at the air show, even as President Obama was meeting President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing. The political messaging was akin to the unveiling of the J-20 on 12 January 2011, when a similar upstaging was done with the unveiling coinciding with the meeting of the US defence secretary Robert Gates and Chinese President Hu Jintao.

There is a stark similarity of the J-31’s aerodynamic surfaces and overall design with that of the American F-35 and F-20 Raptor, showing that the Chinese have spared no effort at industrial espionage. The Chinese, as was expected, attempted to hardsell the J-31 to their friends and allies at the air show. It would be an interesting thought if they could do a reverse and offer the design to the Russians in lieu of engine technology but given the threat this would pose to Russian exports, it is doubtful that this would happen.

Before the unveiling of the J-31, the initial reaction of some western observers to the development of the J-31 had been that it could prove to be a potent weapon platform that could favourably match fourth generation Western aircraft at a much lower price tag. From the subsequent media reports it has become clear that the J-31 still has many hurdles to cross before it can finish its flight tests and become ready for operational flying; thus, the assessments were a bit premature.

The main pointer to this is the fact that only three out of the required eight prototypes are flying (as per their own statements) which means that a large amount of the flight envelope is yet to be investigated and cleared for flying operations. Additionally, the very benign manoeuvres that were demonstrated during the air show buttress this deduction.

What is further intriguing is the fact that there was no static display of the J-31 (only a scale model was displayed), implying that the Chinese are perhaps not too confident of the stealth features being evaluated at close quarters by foreign experts; this will certainly cause a loss of credibility in their claim. It was also a dead giveaway that something was meant to be