Louis A. Del Monte

There is a new arms race. The United States, China and Russia are placing artificial intelligence at the center of their new weapons strategy. Every country is being secretive regarding its development and deployment of artificially intelligent weapons. However, it is possible to gain insight into even the most secret areas by using a time-proven technique—namely, apply the old adage “follow the money.”

The countries with the top three largest defense budgets are, in descending order, the United States, China and Russia. Specifically, the United States has the largest military budget in the world. In 2016, the US Department of Defense spent slightly over $611 billion (US) on defense, 3.3 percent of the US gross domestic product (GDP). In comparison, China, which has the second largest budget, is spending slightly more than $215 billion (1.9 percent of their GDP), roughly a third of what the United States spends. Russia is a distant third at slightly over $69 billion (5.3 percent of their GDP), roughly a little over 11 percent of what the United States spends.

Given these defense budgets, a person may rush to conclude that the United States would reign supreme in all aspects of warfare. Unfortunately, that is not how it works. Both China and Russia understand that they cannot match the United States one-to-one in every aspect of warfare.

In recent years, increased spending by China and Russia on modernization is closing the military leadership gap the United States has enjoyed. If we look closely at China’s military modernization over the last fifteen years, we can see that it includes ballistic missiles, air defense, aircraft, electronic warfare, and naval vessels. China is not trying to match US military might across the board. Their objective is greater control over the Asia-Pacific region, especially control over their near seas. Their focused objective does not require military parity with the United States, whose global mission is to ensure freedom of navigation and commerce, including the hotly contested Asia-Pacific seas. With this limited goal, China only needs to be a viable threat to the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Given their modernization over the last fifteen years, especially with regard to their naval and ballistic capabilities, China appears to have anti-ship missiles capable of destroying US aircraft carriers and missiles capable of attacking air bases in the region or even top-tier US fighter aircraft, like the F35. Their cyber systems appear able to disrupt US logistics and communications. In light of this, it is reasonable to conclude they are achieving their objective. Russia, like China, is also seeking to develop new military technologies to undermine US capabilities in Europe and Asia. In past conflicts, such as Desert Storm, the United States did not face adversaries capable of destroying its aircraft carriers and air bases or challenging its ability to dominate the adversary’s air space. This asymmetrical aspect of warfare creates a new problem for US military planners, and challenges the United States’ ability to project force.