Maj. Gen. Mrinal Suman (retd)

A risk is a measure of danger or a threat that arises out of future uncertainties. All plans are based on certain premises and a premise is a belief. It presupposes that all elements will perform and deliver as anticipated. However, future never follows the predicted pattern. When deviations occur, the plans go awry and threaten viability of a project. Plans can be salvaged and put back on track only in case the likely hurdles had been foreseen and contingency plans evolved to overcome them. Defence acquisitions are a long-drawn process involving a host of agencies with myriad disciplines. Despite the best efforts, things do not move as expected. Hence, risk management acquires immense importance.

Sluggish modernisation of the Indian armed forces has been a cause of serious concern to all who are concerned with national security. One of the primary reasons for non-conclusion of contracts and surrender of funds is India’s inability to ensure that all procurement proposals get processed as per the laid down guidelines and without getting afflicted with infirmities. As per a rough estimate, less than 50 per cent proposals fructify into supply orders. Most have to be aborted mid-way due to various failings including non-adherence of policy provisions at different stages. The magnitude of the problem can be gauged from the fact that 41 procurement proposals had to be withdrawn solely due to the inadequacies of the qualitative requirements during 2011-12.

Every time a proposal is withdrawn midway, the country and the services suffer. Initiation of a revised proposal entails a delay of three-five years. In the interim, the services remain deprived of the equipment. Allotted funds remain unexpended and have to be surrendered. Worse, the country has to suffer cost escalation due to inflation. Therefore, it is in our national interest to ensure that all procurement proposals result in contracts without any hitch.

It is often said that ‘if anything can go wrong, it will’. Even the best of the plans rarely follow the premeditated path. There will always be holdups, glitches and delays. It is prudent to anticipate possible snags well in advance and be prepared for all such eventualities. It is essential to be organised for initiating restorative plans before the procure