Letter from the Editor | December 2024

Hope all readers of FORCE have had a satisfying year. As 2024 ends, three big events this year would have serious implications for India’s future. The first was the Modi government winning a third term in office. The second was the bold signalling by India that it would not have normal ties with China. Both these events heralded uncertainty, volatility and instability in South Asia where India would likely find itself further alienated in its neighbourhood.

The third event was the exceptionally successful 16^th BRICS summit held under Russia’s presidency. Perhaps, the most important thing about BRICS was not its extraordinary expansion whereby a new category of ‘partner countries’ was created to accommodate 13 nations. Nor the decision by member nations to trade in local currencies to bypass the US dollar and US led payment system. But the decision of Saudi Arabia to remain the fence sitter. While having joined the BRICS as full member in January 2024, Riyadh did not ratify the agreement. This when it had agreed to do energy trade with China in local currencies—Yuan and Saudi Riyals. In November, both nations signed a local currency swap agreement for 50 billion Yuan/ 26 billion Saudi Riyals in bilateral trade for three years. The implication of this move was simple: if Saudi Arabia, as the world’s biggest crude oil exporter decided to ratify BRICS full membership, Petro Yuan would replace Petro Dollar in a few years with serious implications for US dollar as the world’s reverse currency.

Meanwhile, with Modi in office, strategic and military ties between India and the US would strengthen further under the Trump presidency. President-elect Trump has won office on the slogan of making America great again, which means his focus would be on containing China’s rise by high tariffs, more sanctions, denial of high-end technology and tools, de-coupling of supply chains from China, and by aggressive military posturing in Indo Pacific region. India, given its ideal geography, large market and disciplined military would play an important role in US’ strategy and foreign policy towards China.

This will not go down well with China at a time when India remains unwilling to normalise relations with Beijing. There will be two serious consequences of India’s decision: One, the triangular Russia-China-India partnership which is at the heart of the BRICS would suffer which China and Russia would not like to happen. How the two Great Powers would respond needs to be seen. And two, China might decide to proactively wean smaller nations of South Asia away from India. Given that, India’s relations with all its neighbours except Bhutan are not optimal, Beijing has the ability to isolate India strategically in its neighbourhood by its BRI which is about physical and digital connectivity for trade and commerce.

Meanwhile, the December issue, as always, commemorates the Indian Navy. Read on.