Lt Gen. B.S. Nagal (retd)

The only thing that is constant is change — Heraclitus

To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often — Winston Churchill

Fifteen years ago India released its draft nuclear doctrine and 11 years ago, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) released the final doctrine on 3 January 2003. The salient points in the CCS approval were: Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD); No First Use Policy (NFU); Massive Retaliation (MR); Non-use of nuclear weapons against Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS); and option of use of nuclear weapons in case of major attack by biological or chemical weapons.

Deterrence
The CCS release read in conjunction with the draft doctrine affirmed nuclear deterrence is related to ‘India’s strategic interests, deter use or threats of use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons’, the requirements of deterrence would weigh in the design of the nuclear forces and the strategy on the level of capability.

One can also infer the great powers equation in the calculus. The nuclear doctrine did not cater for conventional deterrence or the lower side of the spectrum of war/violence, on the other hand conventional deterrence was expected to raise the threshold for nuclear war. In the draft doctrine paragraph 2.7 stated ‘highly effective conventional military capabilities shall be maintained to raise the threshold of outbreak, both of conventional military conflict as well as that of threat or use of nuclear weapons’.

Therefore, India’s nuclear deterrence is clearly strategic in nature, and is linked to the four aspects stated above i.e. nuclear, biological, chemical and strategic interests. There are many quarters where the effectiveness of our nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis proxy war is questioned. The issue of proxy war is not linked to nuclear doctrine. Conventional deterrence must counter the proxy war and terrorism. The objectives of the US and UK nuclear policy are also similar, i.e. to deter nuclear, biological or chemical threats or protect vital interests or prevent blackmail/coercion.

There is a school of thought in India that the country should adopt a strategy of nuclear war-fighting, based on our neighbours’ developing tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) and adopt a quid pro quo option instead of massive retaliation. At present, there is no common definition of TNW, the general understanding is that the weapon is of low yield, delivered by short range artillery or short range missile or aircraft for use in the battlefield area and could include forward airfields.

Therefore, the use of TNW will be limited to army field formations and logistics echelons or bases in support of offensive formations in the battle zone, forward aviation assets, forward air bases, critical command and control centres. It can be a link between conventional war and strategic nuclear exchange. In western parlance air delivered weapons not part of the strategic delivery systems of bigger yields are called non-strategic weapons. This, however, does not apply in the South Asia context.

The proponents of TNW bring out that this strategy is suited to overcome conventional inferiority by linking conventional war to nuclear at an early stage. TNW destroy ingressing conventional forces and stabilise the battlefield by defeating offensives, hence may help de-escalate a conflict. The weapons are very effective on point targets e.g. airfields, bridges, missile sites, choke points and lines of communication. As such, a nuclear war-fighting strategy is an option with countries with weaker/ inferior conventional forces.

The opponents of TNW highlight problems in adopting a nuclear war-fighting strategy. First, it proliferates nuclear weapons down to battlefield level, resulting in greater and faster demand for use of nuclear weapons. Second, at some point of time in the war, sooner than later, authority will be delegated to lower levels in the military, thus resulting in a lowered threshold. Third, escalation control cannot be imposed in a TNW, resulting in a spiral leading to strategic nuclear exchange. Fourth, large scale use of TNW will result in high radiation in populated areas and winds will spread this radiation to large tracts. TNWs result in an arms race and are inherently destabilising. Based on the arguments above it is not recommended as a strategy for India.

India will follow a strategy of strategic nuclear deterrence is clear from the overall doctrine, and has not indicated interest in nuclear war-fighting (the absence of development of delivery systems for TNW). It views nuclear weapons not for use but deterrence. If deterrence fails, only then use them as a last option. The strategic deterrence strategy is not destabilising and does not result in an arms race or battlefield use of nuclear weapons.

Considering the reasons and rationale for India’s strategic nuclear deterrence, it is in sync and consonance with world opinion, thought and logic and more importantly meets India’s requirements in the rapidly changing world power calculus, therefore does not require any change or modification. Overall, it can be said that our nuclear deterrence and strategic policy have worked effectively.

Credible Minimum Deterrent
India has two neighbours with nuclear weapons and both are in concert with each other on politico-military issues, thereby aggravating India’s security concerns. The capability being developed by one is far beyond their deterrence requirements. The four plutonium producing reactors and a uranium facility will allow building of a very large arsenal. The fissil