Critical Lessons

Lt Gen. HJS Sachdev (retd)

Pahalgam terrorist incident and Operation Sindoor, launched by India to avenge the deaths of innocent Indians, has dominated the world stage for the last one month. The fact that both the countries are nuclear states had the world on the edge since it was witnessing the conflict in Gaza and its aftermath, which started in similar fashion as Operation Sindoor. Legitimate questions popped up in everybody’s mind given the rhetoric by political leaders and whipping up of passions in both countries.

Will it stretch beyond mere bombing of terrorist bases? Will it lead up to nuclear flashpoint? However, the diabolical terrorist attack which stunned the world on April 22 and launch of Operation Sindoor on May 7, came to a grinding halt after three days of both sides engaging in high intensity air warfare after the sensitive Pakistan air bases and air assets on ground suffered extensive damage in Indian strikes.

The fog of war, which had engulfed the complete media space, has started to settle down and perhaps it’s the right time to have a clear perspective of what happened, why it happened, what it achieved, and the stakeholders involved in the whole gamut. Perhaps this will enable us to foresee the future and answer the question everybody is asking—has anything changed?

Events leading up to the conflict

While the immediate trigger for the targeted killings at Pahalgam could be attributed to the inflammatory speech given by the Pakistan Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General (now Field Marshal) Asim Munir, the turn of events actually started last year in a different part of South Asia, i.e, Bangladesh!

Some time last year, the deep state of America allegedly tried to extract St Martin island for a US base to counter China in the region and perhaps make inroads into Myanmar given the unstable situation prevailing in the country. The same was denied by the then Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina.

Stung by the refusal, the US set into motion a tool-kit for regime change and succeeded in creating unrest in the country leading to Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country. And in her absence, an interim administrative arrangement under Mohammad Yunus as chief advisor to the government—a de-facto head of the State—was installed.

Evolving situation soon took a turn for the worse with Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), a hardline Muslim party taking over the battlefield. The resultant chaos led to riots with targeted killings of Hindus and Awami League (AL) party members. China taking advantage of the opportunity entered the fray—swiftly and without fanfare. Exchange of delegations took place including JEI and Yunus.

Hardline approach of Yunus came to the fore in his anti-India stance on every issue and peaked when he openly invited China to interfere in India’s northeastern states, perhaps even taking it militarily.

Yunus even reached out to Pakistan militarily, politically and economically and the visits of Pakistan military delegations including Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to the sensitive border areas opposite Siliguri Corridor gave confidence to both Pakistan and China that they had India cornered.

The situation was ripe to up the ante. General Munir’s statement, driven by his background and personal ambitions, may be seen in this context which led to Pahalgam and subsequently to Operation Sindoor.

Operation Sindoor

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his intentions clear a day after the Pahalgam attack in which he vowed to bring the terrorists and the perpetrators in Pakistan (read army) to pay for their crimes. The stage was set, anticipation took over the media space, debates started on how and when, international community left aghast with the killings initially urged both sides to exercise restraint keeping in mind the nuclear status. Political bullying hit the sky in both the countries. Nuclear threats started emanating from Pakistan. In India the political discourse led to a point of frenzy where nothing short of total annihilation was expected.

Then on May 7, India targeted nine terrorist bases including Bahawalpur and Muridke in the heart of Punjab province destroying the headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba respectively. Pakistan, anticipating action opposite the Line of Control (LC), was taken by surprise by the sheer audacity and precision strikes. Unable to accept loss of face, Pakistan responded.

The Conflict: The action on May 7 witnessed through the fog of war was shrouded in a barrage of claims and denials by both sides, with each claiming victory. However, Indian claims have upheld in the days that followed. Airpower, often considered high up in the escalatory ladder, was employed ab-initio. Pakistan’s response using modern day weapon systems like drones was met with equally effective counter measures by India’s air defence. Action on ground was limited to exchange fire across the LC with some damage to both sides. Indian Navy played a part in attacking targets in the deep by Brahmos missiles. India’s retaliation on May 10 against Pakistan’s airbases especially Nur Khan (near Rawalpindi), Sargodha and Jacobabad caused extensive damage to the infrastructure and air assets of Pakistan while still on ground. Jury is still out on what happened at Kirana hills, triggering alarm bells of a nuclear leak from the storage area of nuclear assets. Thus Pakistan stopped the conflict in the face of India’s undeterred political resolve despite looming nuclear threat and scale, speed and precision strikes by Indian armed forces.

There was sudden cessation of fire especially when India had the upper hand and Pakistan was perce