After Operation Sindoor
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While in an interview
to Bloomberg during Shangri la dialogue in Singapore, the Chief of Defence
Staff (CDS), Gen. Anil Chauhan obliquely admitted to the loss of Indian Air
Force (IAF) fighters, he left the quantity vague leading to further speculation
about the number of fighters shot down by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) on the
night of May 6/7 night. According to him the number of fighters lost did not
matter, what mattered was that the IAF made ‘tactical adjustments’ after which
it flew in full force on May 10.
The reality is that the number of IAF fighters lost matter as they are evidence of the IAF having not learnt the key lesson of the 2019 Balakot air attacks which was an urgency to improve Electronic Warfare (EW). They were also proof of the robustness of digital ecosystems of both sides supporting their fighters, especially when the two air forces would lead the next India-Pakistan hot war.
Speculation aside, Operation Sindoor provided the irrefutable glimpse of the next hot war. Hence, my focus is not on what happened, but what lies ahead in the realm of certainty. After Operation Sindoor, Indian military is more vulnerable in a hot war with Pakistan since its limitations to do a campaign involving multiple war domains have been exposed. The domains are air, land, Electromagnetic Spectrum (EMS) for EW, space and cyber. While Pakistan military’s vulnerabilities too were exposed, they, fully backed by China, would be made up faster for surge operations against the Indian military.
Moreover, the operation has not ended in a ceasefire accepted by both sides, but in a ‘new normal’ which has brought the war threshold dangerously low with a temporary ‘pause’ in hostilities. The ‘new normal’ is the use of missiles, artillery and drones along the entire India-Pakistan border and major cities in the hinterland. Once either side decides to end the pause, it would be a hot war involving complete military power of both nations. Here, Pakistan’s advantage would be insurmountable as China has publicly committed to support its strategic partner’s security and sovereignty.
Care was taken in the recent operation by both sides to not use ballistic missiles which are identified nuclear vectors. This means that in a hot war, India and Pakistan will be careful to keep their campaign below the nuclear threshold. This will not be easy since both nations are peer military competitors, hence neither side will be able to control the escalation-ladder. Things will get further complicated with the ‘new normal’ as the starting point. Hence, the campaign would be high intensity, attrition driven, short duration (not more than two weeks), and decisive with defined military aims. Given this scenario, it would be left to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to ensure that nuclear threshold in not crossed especially by India. The PLA has the capabilities to do this.
Three key peculiarities leading to a hot war will be: One, at all stages (peacetime, crisis, pre-war, hot war) of India-Pakistan relations, Pakistan will not only consult China but will also accept its geopolitical, political and military advice.
Two, given the certainty of India not accepting Pakistan’s offer of a composite dialogue to discuss terrorism, water and Kashmir, and Pakistan’s elongated geography which makes its naturally vulnerable to India’s long-range fires especially of BrahMos and S-400, Pakistan will likely be (a) proactive in the next round by striking first, (b) it will expand the area of operations as was demonstrated by its recent cyber-attacks in Kashmir and (c) do faster decision making at all levels of war (strategic, operational and tact
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